Airlines, lessors and investors should prepare now for legal and commercial risks tied to aviation carbon markets, according to a Morgan Lewis analysis published on 5 November 2026. The law firm points to two forces converging: CORSIA moving into its next phase in 2027, and European Union carbon regulations that continue to change. Together, the firm says, these frameworks will shape how contracts are drafted, how investments are assessed, and how environmental claims are made.
Morgan Lewis advises aviation participants to expect shifting eligibility criteria, compliance duties that overlap across jurisdictions, and commercial exposure linked to buying carbon credits. The firm's guidance covers airlines, lessors, investors and other stakeholders.
Why it matters
Aviation carbon rules are no longer a narrow environmental compliance question. According to Morgan Lewis, they reach into contractual arrangements, investment decisions and public environmental statements. That means the risks sit across legal, commercial and communications functions rather than in a single department.
The timing adds pressure. CORSIA's next phase begins in 2027, while EU regulations are still being developed. Stakeholders therefore face a period in which obligations may change while long-term agreements are already in place.
Overlapping rules and credit procurement
The Morgan Lewis analysis identifies three areas of legal and practical concern for the industry as it enters 2027.
The first is eligibility. As CORSIA advances and regional rules evolve, the requirements that determine which credits and which participants qualify may shift. The firm flags evolving eligibility requirements as a core consideration.
The second is overlap. Aviation stakeholders may face compliance obligations under more than one framework at the same time, including CORSIA and EU measures. Managing those parallel duties is presented as a practical challenge rather than a theoretical one.
The third is procurement risk. Buying carbon credits carries commercial exposure, and Morgan Lewis lists the commercial risks associated with credit procurement among the issues the industry should prepare for.
Contracts, due diligence and coordination
To manage this uncertainty, Morgan Lewis recommends building flexibility into long-term agreements. Contracts that leave room to adapt may serve parties better than rigid terms when the underlying rules are still moving.
The firm also calls for stronger due diligence and documentation, and for coordinating three activities that are often handled separately: carbon procurement, fuel strategies, and environmental communications. Aligning them, according to the analysis, is a key way to handle regulatory uncertainty across the industry.
Morgan Lewis describes its own practice as advising aviation participants on regulatory, commercial and transactional issues in international carbon markets. The firm says its team works across aviation, energy, environmental regulation and cross-border transactions, assisting airlines, lessors and investors with compliance, credit procurement and project investments, contractual risk allocation, and changing emissions and sustainability requirements.
What to watch: how CORSIA's 2027 phase takes shape and how EU rules develop alongside it, and whether industry contracts begin to reflect the flexibility Morgan Lewis recommends.
